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Deutschlandprognose 2011: Aufschwung in langsamerem Tempo

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat ihren vor mehr als einem Jahr begonnenen Aufholprozess mit hoher Dynamik fortgesetzt. Nachdem die Impulse dafür zunächst aus dem Ausland gekommen waren, gewann die Binnenwirtschaft 2010 mehr und mehr an Bedeutung. Besonders wichtig war dafür der Investitionsanreiz, der aus einem historisch niedrigen Zinsniveau resultierte. Im Jahr 2011 bleiben die Konjunkturampeln in Deutschland auf Grün, das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte – bei einem 67-%-Unsicherheitsintervall von 1,4 % bis 3,4 % – um 2,4 % steigen. Entscheidend hierfür wird voraussichtlich die Entwicklung der heimischen Nachfrage sein. Bei alledem ist zu erwarten, dass sich die Beschäftigungssituation weiter verbessert. Die Arbeitslosenquote dürfte auf 7,0 % sinken.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
Issue (Month): 01 (02)
Pages: 5-14

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:18:y:2011:i:01:p:5-14
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