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Deutschlandprognose 2009 : in schwerer Rezession

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

In Deutschland stehen die Konjunkturampeln im Jahr 2009 auf rot. Die deutsche Wirtschaft, die zuvor aufgrund ihrer außenwirtschaftlichen Ausrichtung in besonderem Maße von dem kräftigen weltwirtschaftlichen Aufschwung profitiert hat, gerät nun umgekehrt in besonderem Maße in den Abwärtssog, den die Finanzkrise weltweit ausgelöst hat. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2009 wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt, dem Ursprungswert nach wie auch kalenderbereinigt, um 2,2% abnehmen. In Relation zum nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist der Finanzierungssaldo des Staates auf 1,4 % zu veranschlagen. Erst im Jahr 2010 ist mit dem allmählichen Abebben der Finanzkrise und der leichten Besserung des internationalen Umfelds eine konjunkturelle Stabilisierung zu erwarten.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Deutschlandprognose 2009 : in schwerer Rezession," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(01), pages 12-17, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:16:y:2009:i:01:p:12-17
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    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Konjunktur; Wirtschaftspolitik; Wirtschaftslage; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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