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Deutschlandprognose 2005/2006: nur langsam aufwärts

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


Nach relativ gutem Start zu Jahresbeginn ist die Konjunktur in Deutschland im Frühjahr wieder ins Stocken geraten sein. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im ersten Halbjahr 2005 gegenüber dem vergleichbaren Vorjahreszeitraum aufgrund der ölpreisbedingten Terms-of-Trade-Verluste nur um 0,8% gestiegen sein. Auch im Jahresdurchschnitt ist das Wirtschaftswachstum auf 0,8 % zu veranschlagen, nach 1,6 % im Jahr 2004. Im nächsten Jahr dürfte sich das Expansionstempo der Produktion – parallel zur Besserung der Weltkonjunktur – wieder leicht beschleunigen; die Zuwachsrate des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts dürfte sich dann auf 1,2 % belaufen.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 04 (08)
Pages: 18-25

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:12:y:2005:i:04:p:18-25
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