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Deutschlandprognose 2005/2006: nur langsam aufwärts

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

Nach relativ gutem Start zu Jahresbeginn ist die Konjunktur in Deutschland im Frühjahr wieder ins Stocken geraten sein. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte im ersten Halbjahr 2005 gegenüber dem vergleichbaren Vorjahreszeitraum aufgrund der ölpreisbedingten Terms-of-Trade-Verluste nur um 0,8% gestiegen sein. Auch im Jahresdurchschnitt ist das Wirtschaftswachstum auf 0,8 % zu veranschlagen, nach 1,6 % im Jahr 2004. Im nächsten Jahr dürfte sich das Expansionstempo der Produktion – parallel zur Besserung der Weltkonjunktur – wieder leicht beschleunigen; die Zuwachsrate des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts dürfte sich dann auf 1,2 % belaufen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Deutschlandprognose 2005/2006: nur langsam aufwärts," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(04), pages 18-25, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:12:y:2005:i:04:p:18-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Wirtschaftslage; Wirtschaftsprognose; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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