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Deutschlandprognose 2005 : weiter aufwärts ohne Schwung

Author

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2005 um 1,2 % steigen, nach Ausschaltung von Kalenderschwankungen sogar um 1,4 %. Die Investitionen werden wieder steigen, auch der private Konsum dürfte sich beleben. Die Exporte bleiben angesichts des immer noch günstigen internationalen Umfelds weiterhin eine wichtige Stütze der Konjunktur; ihr Anstiegstempo wird sich aber verringern. Die Arbeitsmarktsituation wird jedoch desolat bleiben; in der Spitze wird die Arbeitslosenzahl bei Einrechnung der Hartz-IV-Reform sogar auf 5,1 Mill. klettern.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Deutschlandprognose 2005 : weiter aufwärts ohne Schwung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(01), pages 14-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:12:y:2005:i:01:p:14-26
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Wirtschaftslage; Konjunkturprognose; Arbeitsmarkt; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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