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Konjunkturperspektiven 2004/2005 : Erholung setzt sich fort

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

In der deutschen Wirtschaft hat sich die Erholung in der ersten Hälfte dieses Jahres spürbar gefestigt. Impulse kamen bisher ausschließlich vom Ausland. Sie haben noch nicht auf die Nachfrage im Inland übergegriffen. Für den Prognosezeitraum wird erwartet, dass die außenwirtschaftlichen Impulse schwächer werden, da der globale Aufschwung insbesondere in seinen Kraftzentren USA und China an Tempo verliert. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden die Exportzuwächse in der Tendenz sinken, gleichzeitig expandiert die Inlandsnachfrage nicht stark genug, um dies auszugleichen. Alles in allem wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2005 um 1,5% zunehmen, nach 1,8% im Jahr 2004. Die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen dürfte im Prognosezeitraum weiter steigen, insbesondere im Niedriglohn- und Teilzeitbereich. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen wird etwas abnehmen.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Dresden_berichtet/zs-drber-2004/ifodb_2004_6_18-22.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 06 (December)
Pages: 18-22

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:11:y:2004:i:06:p:18-22
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