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Zu Prognosen und Prognoserisiken


  • Wolfgang Nierhaus



In juengster Zeit standen die Forschungsinstitute in der Kritik, weil sie ihre Konjunkturprognosen nach unten revidiert haben. Dabei wurde deutlich, dass es in der Oeffentlichkeit Missverstaendnisse darueber gibt, was das eigentliche Ziel einer Konjunkturprognose ist und welche Schaetzrisiken dabei bestehen. Der Beitrag geht auf diese Fragen ein und vergleicht die frueheren Prognosen des ifo Instituts mit der tatsaechlichen Entwicklung.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Zu Prognosen und Prognoserisiken," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(04), pages 33-37, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:08:y:2001:i:04:p:33-37

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    Konjunkturprognose; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production


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