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Prognose 2001 : konjunkturelle Dynamik laesst nach

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

Seit dem Sommer 2000 zeigt die Konjunkturentwicklung in Deutschland und den anderen Industrielaendern mehr oder weniger deutliche Bremsspuren durch die hoeheren Oelpreise. In Deutschland wird sich das Wirtschaftswachstum im Jahr 2001 auf 2,5% abschwaechen (2000: 3,1%), insbesondere wegen der geringeren Exportdynamik. Impulse erhaelt die deutsche Konjunktur dagegen von der Steuersenkung. Der gesamte expansive Konjunkturimpuls der Finanzpolitik wird aber geringer sein als der Steuerentlastungseffekt. Die Zahl der Erwerbstaetigen duerfte in Deutschland im Jahresdurchschnitt 2001 um 350.000 zunehmen, nach einem Anstieg um nahezu 600 000 im Jahr 2000. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen sinkt im Jahr 2001 auf rund 3,6 Mill.; die Arbeitslosenquote faellt auf 8,6%, nach 9,2% im Jahr 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Prognose 2001 : konjunkturelle Dynamik laesst nach," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(01), pages 6-15, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:08:y:2001:i:01:p:6-15
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    Keywords

    Deutschland; Konjunktur; Entwicklung; Prognose;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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