Common Characteristics of Swing States in the US and Federal States in Europe

Key MessagesBertrand’s model of price duopoly with differentiated products is able to explain not only the behavior of walk-in customers, but also that of walk-in voters.The existence of a significant number of walk-in voters, in turn, explains a major characteristic of the so-called swing states in US presidential elections.Not only the US, but also European countries host swing states, as is the case with North RhineWestphalia, one of the larger “Länder” in Germany.During the 2024 US presidential campaign, significant events (Biden’s retreat, the assassination attempt on Trump, the hype about the enthronement of Kamala Harris, etc.) and their distribution in the media had a strong temporary impact on the development of polls.Finally, it was more fundamental and less temporary factors such as the cost of living and heavily disputed migration policy that were decisive rather than the bubbles caused by new information.