A Historical Portrait of Insecurity in Bulgaria (1878–2024): Socio-Economic Determinants

Within a long-term analytical framework, this study reconstructs the historical trajectory of poverty, inequality, and insecurity in Bulgaria from 1878 to 2024, interpreted within the context of wars, political turmoil, and institutional reforms. The evidence combines extended statistical series (GDP per capita, inequality indicators, poverty thresholds, life expectancy) with qualitative assessments of institutional responses. The objective is to demonstrate how successive crises - military conflicts, global depressions, socialist transformations, and market transitions, have shaped the country’s socio-economic fabric. The findings suggest that episodes of war and political instability produce lasting demographic and fiscal shocks, while institutional innovations often emerge as adaptive responses. In this regard, the socialist regime reduced extreme poverty and compressed inequality, though at the cost of efficiency and innovation, whereas the post-1990 transition accelerated European integration but introduced new vulnerabilities such as persistent inequality and high relative poverty. The issue of sustainable development is thus interpreted as dependent not solely on economic growth but also on the capacity of inclusive institutions to ensure redistribution, social protection, and human capital accumulation.