Obesity In Transition: The Case Of Bulgaria

Obesity has become a pressing global public health challenge, yet evidence highlights substantial variation in its patterns across and within countries, with national-level drivers often insufficiently understood. This study investigates the association between dietary consumption and obesity prevalence in Bulgaria, a former communist country that experienced economic and social transitions between 1992 and 2022. A multiple linear regression model was applied to assess the impact of key dietary components on obesity among adults (18+). The model was statistically significant and explained 54% of the adjusted variance in obesity prevalence. Results showed that higher consumption of vegetable oils, starchy roots and alcohol were positively associated with obesity, while milk consumption was inversely related. Other factors - including sugar and sweeteners, meat, wheat and wheat products, and fruits and vegetables - did not reach statistical significance, possibly reflecting declining consumption trends and data limitations such as unrecorded subsistence farming output. These findings underscore how dietary transitions shaped by economic crises, recovery, and modernization of the food environment contributed to the rise of obesity in Bulgaria, where prevalence increased from 12% to 21% during the study period. The study highlights the importance of country specific dietary drivers to inform targeted policies for obesity prevention.