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Interest Rate Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate: Response of the Bank Indonesia and its Impact on the Indonesian Economic Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Imam Mukhlis

    (Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Malang, Indonesia)

  • Isnawati Hidayah

    (International Development Studies, Wageningen University & Research, The Netherlands)

  • Nora Ria Retnasih

    (Faculty of Economics and Islamic Business IAIN Tulungagung, Indonesia)

Abstract

This research aims to analyse the response of the Bank Indonesia (BI rate) to the Indonesian economic stability. The data analysis is stationarity test, model stability test, lag determination, Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Variance Decomposition (VD). The research data is obtained from the publication provided by the Federal Reserve Data (FRED), the Bank Indonesia, and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data used is since the third quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2017. The research results showed that the variable of the federal funds rate (FFR) significantly influences the exchange rate and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it does not significantly affect the BI rate, the amount of the money supply (M2), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The result of the IRF test showed that the BI rate, the amount of money supply, exchange rate (IDR/USD), GDP, and CPI positively and negatively respond the FFR change. The result of VD test indicated that the variation of the BI rate, the currency exchange rate, and CPI are mostly caused by the FFR variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Imam Mukhlis & Isnawati Hidayah & Nora Ria Retnasih, 2020. "Interest Rate Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate: Response of the Bank Indonesia and its Impact on the Indonesian Economic Stability," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(1), pages 111-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:9:y:2020:i:1:p:111-133
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karen Poghosyan & Ruben Poghosyan, 2022. "An Application of Index Number Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence from Selected Post-Soviet Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 165-186.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal Funds Rate; BI Rate; Money Supply; Exchange Rate; Structural Vector Autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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