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Unusual Changes in the U.S. Treasury Security Market During the Fourth Round of Quantitative Easing

Author

Listed:
  • Kyle D. Allen

    (Boise State University, Boise, Idaho, USA)

  • Scott E. Hein

    (Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, USA)

Abstract

The Covid-19 Pandemic and policy response rattled the US Treasury markets. Conventional US Treasuries, inflation adjusted US Treasuries, and the relationship between the two developed in ways such that ignoring changes in real interest rates yielded distorted inflation expectations estimates. Since the beginning of the pandemic, monetary policy kept nominal rates low and close to zero, but positive. Real rates, on the other hand, became increasingly negative. The relationship between the two market rates became negatively correlated, and distorted because of the fourth round of quantitative easing, along with the Fed preventing nominal yields from turning negative. Federal Reserve actions during the Covid-19 pandemic drove a larger wedge between nominal interest rates and real interest rates in the inflation adjusted market.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyle D. Allen & Scott E. Hein, 2023. "Unusual Changes in the U.S. Treasury Security Market During the Fourth Round of Quantitative Easing," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 12(3), pages 5-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:12:y:2023:i:3:p:5-22
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US Treasuries; Break Even Rate; Inflation; TIPS; Federal Reserve.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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