Épuisement des ressources naturelles, formation d'habitudes et viabilité budgétaire : Enseignements de l'expérience gabonaise
While models based on Friedman’s (1957) permanent-income hypothesis can provide oil-producing countries with long-run fiscal targets, they usually abstract from short-run costs associated with consolidation. This paper proposes a model that takes such adjustment costs (or “habits”) into consideration. The approach is applied to Gabon, where oil reserves are expected to be exhausted within 30 years. The results suggest that Gabon’s current fiscal-policy stance cannot be maintained, but that the presence of habits justifies smoothing adjustment towards the sustainable level over three to five years.
Volume (Year): 120 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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