Le rôle international de l'euro : chronique d'une décennie

Eleven years after the creation of the euro, this article surveys the international role of the European currency. The external representation of Eurozone has not yet reached its equilibrium point, and the relative economic weight of the area is bound to diminish in future years but this has not prevented the euro from gaining a prominent role on international financial markets. The euro has risen mainly as a reserve of value and as a regional currency but it has not become a competitor to the US dollar as a vehicle currency. Its development potential is still large, in particular if the markets for euro-denominated government securities were to be unified. A possible scenario would be the advent of a multi-centered system with several key currencies, including the dollar, the euro, and possibly the yen and the renminbi. The international monetary system would thus follow the rebalancing of economic power and this would solve the Triffin paradox, which threatens today the dominance of the dollar. The consequences for the exchange rate of the euro would be unclear, the link between the international status of a currency and its exchange rate being ambiguous. At most could the Europeans hope in such an environment that the exchange rate of the euro would better cushion the economic shocks faced by the Eurozone, which it has not really done so far.