Une analyse de l’inflation de la zone euro à travers ses composantes cycliques et acycliques

Europe has seen a resurgence of inflation following the outbreak of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This acceleration in price increases, driven by rising energy prices, has led to a strong reaction by political and monetary authorities. This return of inflation to the euro zone was followed by a sharp hike in the rates set by the European Central Bank. These interventions have raised a number of questions about the conduct of monetary policy. One concerns the relevance of the inflation indicators monitored by the ECB. The aim of this study is to develop a new inflation indicator, based on breaking down the harmonised index of prices in the euro zone into its cyclical and acyclical components, and then comparing the main indicators monitored by the ECB with the newly created indicator. This SuperCore inflation index allows us to conduct a more detailed analysis of the dynamics of inflation since the creation of the common currency. We therefore show that such an indicator would prove useful to the central banks, not only by monitoring its movements but also through the way it is constituted. Finally, we evaluate the predictive power of the SuperCore Index.