Sur l’onde des chocs. Perspectives 2023-2024 pour l’économie mondiale et la zone euro

The strong rebound in economic activity in 2021 came to an end in the second half of 2022. The energy crisis and rising food prices have pushed inflation to levels not seen in the industrialised countries since the 1980s. This rise in prices has eroded household purchasing power, leading to a fall in demand, with the result that many countries are now teetering on the brink of recession. The recent decline in energy prices will see inflation continue to drop gradually, although this will be held back in part by the ongoing rise in food prices. The past price rises will continue to hit activity in 2023 and 2024. As governments take steps to try to cushion the fall in income and limit price rises, central banks are raising interest rates, exacerbating the slowdown in demand. Over 2023 as a whole, world GDP is expected to grow by 2.3%, after 3.2% in 2022 and 6% in 2021. Inflation should fall gradually, and the risk of price-wage loops is limited. By the end of 2024, inflation in the eurozone will still exceed 3%, while in the United States it will be 2.4%. Sluggish demand will lead central banks to put an end to monetary tightening, especially as higher interest rates aggravate financial risks globally. While the handful of bank failures in recent weeks haven?t triggered a global banking crisis, the risk remains.