Partie II. La vague espérée de la reprise. Perspectives 2021-2022 pour l’économie française

After a historic fall in GDP (-8.0%) in 2020, the French economy should experience a strong rebound in 2021 (+6.3%) and post robust growth (+4.1%) in 2022, as the vaccination campaign ramps up, prophylactic measures are lifted and support from public policies kicks in. GDP should return to its pre-crisis level by the end of 2021, and by the end of 2022 it should exceed that level by 3%. Despite this, the French economy will then still have a deficit in activity of 1.3% compared to the pre-Covid trend path. The impact of the crisis on potential GDP, due in particular to the lower accumulation of productive capital, should be limited to -0.3% of GDP by the time of our forecast, thanks to a good performance by investment. The counterpart to the State?s massive support (more than 90% of the shock so far has been absorbed by government measures) is the rise in the public deficit (-9.1% of GDP in 2020 after -3.1% in 2019, then ?8.4% in 2021 and -5.0% in 2022) and greater public debt, which will reach 116% of GDP in 2021 and 115% in 2022. The lifting of health restrictions and the creation of jobs should see people who had fallen into inactivity during the health crisis gradually return to work, as well as to a reduction in part-time work. All in all, the extensive job creation in 2021 will push down the unemployment rate to 7.8% by the end of 2021. The pace of job creation in 2022 will be insufficient to stabilise the unemployment rate, which will rise to 8.0% by year?s end. Inflation is expected to hit 1.5% in 2021 and 2022. Higher commodity prices will contribute 0.6 points to inflation in 2021, while the dissipation of this effect should cut inflation by 0.1 points in 2022. The convergence of GDP towards its long-term trajectory will lead to an increase in inflation (excluding energy) from 0.9% in 2021 to 1.6% in 2022. The purchasing power of household gross disposable income (GDI) per consumption unit should rise by 1.5% in 2021 and by 0.7% in 2022 (after 0.0% in 2020). The forecast of GDP growth of 4.1% for 2022 implies a return of the savings rate to its pre-crisis level in the second half of 2022. The excess savings accumulated at the end of 2021 represents 11% of annual household income. Assuming a common dynamic in all the developed countries, consumption of one-fifth of these savings would lead to a growth scenario of 6.2% in 2022 and an unemployment rate of 6.0%. With GDP exceeding its medium-term potential, inflation would rise to 2.4%. This more favourable growth scenario would reduce the deficit to 3.8% of GDP in 2022 and the public debt to 111%.