Épargne retraite. Stratégies d’allocation et dynamique des marchés financiers

The PACTE law of 22 May 2019 is intended to direct savings towards productive long-term investments by promoting the growth of retirement savings. At the same time, it aspires to shift the dividing line between distribution and capitalization. This raises two questions: the impact of capitalization on growth, and the dynamics that characterize risky assets. This article focuses on the measurement of risk associated with the use of capital income to finance pensions, and it examines the key question of the utility that agents might derive from their contributions to the savings fund. The results of simulations carried out in the French demo-economic framework show that if the price of risky assets follows a random path (EMH), risk-averse agents will not be able to obtain a risk-return trade-off on the markets equivalent to that implicitly provided by the pay-as-you-go system. On the other hand, if stock market shocks are transitory in nature, then the financial market could compete with pay-as-you-go schemes at the cost of massive investment in risky assets at the beginning and middle of working life.