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Analyse économétrique et compréhension des erreurs de prévision


  • Guillaume Chevillon


This article presents recent results regarding the econometric approach to economic forecasting. We aim to establish here what constitutes a "good" forecast. A forecast taxonomy helps understand how to obtain forecasts that prove robust to the most detrimental source of error: structural breaks that affect the data generating process. The concepts of accuracy, precision and certainty applied to forecast models show that evaluation criteria are paramount in the model design stage. An empirical application to forecasting French imports of goods and services provides an illustration. JEL codes : E3, E5, G18, G21.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Chevillon, 2005. "Analyse économétrique et compréhension des erreurs de prévision," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 95(4), pages 327-356.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_095_0327

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    3. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Moron, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for financially vulnerable economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 23-51, February.
    5. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    6. Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Esteban Jadresic & Paul R Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Eduardo Moron & Juan F. Castro, 2002. "Uncovering Central Bank Monetary Policy Objectives: Going Beyond Fear of Floating," Macroeconomics 0205002, EconWPA.
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages


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