Arménie, Géorgie, Azerbaïdjan et la guerre en Ukraine : les dividendes de l’ambiguïté

The three republics of the South Caucasus are indirectly but significantly affected by the war in Ukraine. Because of the conflicts that cross them, they have approached without unity this international crisis. However, despite very different economic structures, these three countries adopted similar diplomatic positions vis-à-vis the conflict, maintaining a strategic ambiguity that allowed them to avoid suffering excessively from its consequences on the supply of raw materials. While inflation was maintained or accelerated in 2022, these economies continued to follow a dynamic growth trajectory that began in 2021, fueled by their favorable geographical position, which allows them to serve as a refuge for Russian populations fleeing the regime and the war, but also as a region-wide logistics and commercial hub. In the medium term, the challenge will be for them to maintain this position of unstable balance between Russia, the European Union and Turkey. Classification JEL : F24, F32, F51, O53.