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Dynamique de l'endettement privé en Chine : risques et enjeux

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  • Camille Macaire

Abstract

Since 2008, China has experienced an unprecedented phase of private debt expansion. Faced with incurring risks, the authorities have implemented reforms aimed at raising the financial sector's soundness. They maintained this strategy despite the economic slowdown. It began to bear fruit, with stabilization of debt levels since 2017. However, the Covid-19 crisis brings unprecedented challenges. The Chinese authorities deployed support measures that were limited in scope, to avoid falling back into a debt spiral. However, the increase in debt levels and the shock to economic growth poses new risks to the financial sector, in particular to banks. Authorities should remain present to avoid a banking crisis in the medium term, but the issue of managing non-performing loans will remain crucial. The resilience of the Chinese economy and the growth rebound alleviate risks. Yet, the structural weaknesses of the financial system will remain a crucial issue for China. Classification JEL : E44, E52, G21, G51.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Macaire, 2021. "Dynamique de l'endettement privé en Chine : risques et enjeux," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(1), pages 89-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:refaef:ecofi_141_0089
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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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