Une évaluation économique du risque de modèle pour les investisseurs de long terme
The recent experience from the global financial crisis has raised serious questions about the accuracy of standard risk measures as a tool to quantify extreme downward risks. These standard risk measures, such as the var, emerge over the last decades as the industry standard for risk management and asset allocation (Basak and Shapiro  ; Montfort ). We estimate the riskiness of risk models and we evaluate its impact on optimal portfolios at various time horizons. Based on a long sample of u.s. data, we find an inverse U-shape relation between var model errors and the horizon that impacts the optimal asset allocation of the representative agent. Classification JEL : C14, C52, G11, G32.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
- M.J.B. Hall, 1996.
"The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk,"
BNL Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
- M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
- Rama Cont, 2006. "Model Uncertainty And Its Impact On The Pricing Of Derivative Instruments," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 519-547.
- Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 0075, European Central Bank.
- T. Clifton Green & Stephen Figlewski, 1999. "Market Risk and Model Risk for a Financial Institution Writing Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1465-1499, 08.
- Rama Cont, 2006. "Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments," Post-Print halshs-00002695, HAL.
- Suleyman Basak & Alexander Shapiro, 1999.
"Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
99-032, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Basak, Suleyman & Shapiro, Alexander, 2001. "Value-at-Risk-Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 371-405.
- Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro, . "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 6-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro, . "Value-at-Risk Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 06-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Kerkhof, Jeroen & Melenberg, Bertrand & Schumacher, Hans, 2010. "Model risk and capital reserves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 267-279, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_633_0591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.