Globalisation financière et croissance dans les économies émergentes. La sous-estimation des contraintes macroéconomiques induites
The countries that have the least attracted external savings have registered highest growth rates over the past two decades. This paradox can be explained by an underestimation of macro-economic mechanisms induced by the inflow of capital: the external liquidity excess may require a tightening of monetary policy and higher real interest rates ; the inflow of capital may cause an appreciation of real exchange rate likely to slow the development in the tradable goods sector. For the emerging countries that attract international capital movements of vast magnitude, there is a risk of dynamic instability at the macroeconomic level, without any guarantee of faster growth. This article is devoted to the explanation of that mechanism. Classification JEL : E44, F36, F43
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