La mobilité quotidienne des Lillois à l'horizon 2030
Long term forecasting of mobility is a major challenge for urban transport planning. The demographic approach based on data from repetitive surveys makes it possible to get insight in the dynamics of behaviours for individuals belonging to different generations at various stages of their life cycle. The decomposition of temporal effects into an effect of age and an effect of generation makes it possible to draw the sample profile during the life cycle: it is the fundamental concept of the “age-cohort” model to predict urban mobility in long term. The application of the model relates to the agglomeration of Lille, where we have three mobility surveys at 11 years intervals.
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