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Évolution de la saisonnalité des naissances en France de 1975 à nos jours


  • Arnaud Régnier-Loilier


Over the past thirty years, the seasonal pattern of births in France has evolved gradually, with a loss in amplitude and a shift of the mode from May to September. The reasons for these changes remain difficult to determine. Nonetheless, exhaustive data from civil records combined with abortion statistics provide an explanation for the current distribution of births, with the September «peak» corresponding to a surplus of conceptions on New Year’s Eve. There are several discontinuities in the seasonal pattern, however. For instance, the major heat waves observed since 1975 have led to fewer deliveries nine months later. The decrease in births observed in late summer 1975 may have been the result of the Veil Act legalizing abortion. This interpretation must be taken with caution, however, as the effect was short-lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Régnier-Loilier, 2010. "Évolution de la saisonnalité des naissances en France de 1975 à nos jours," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 65(1), pages 147-189.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:popine:popu_1001_0147

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kathleen Mcgarry & Robert Schoeni, 2000. "Social security, economic growth, and the rise in elderly widows’ independence in the twentieth century," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(2), pages 221-236, May.
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    4. Susan Ettner, 1995. "The impact of “parent care” on female labor supply decisions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(1), pages 63-80, February.
    5. Aline Désesquelles & Nicolas Brouard, 2003. "Le réseau familial des personnes âgées de 60 ans ou plus vivant à domicile ou en institution," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 58(2), pages 201-227.
    6. Iacovou, Maria, 2000. "Health, wealth and progeny: explaining the living arrangements of older European women," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Robert Michael & Victor Fuchs & Sharon Scott, 1980. "changes in the propensity to live alone: 1950–1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(1), pages 39-56, February.
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