L'inflation et la rentabilité des actions : une relation énigmatique et un casse-tête pour les banques centrales

This paper sheds a new light on the puzzling negative relationship between nominal stock returns and expected inflation. The assertion that stocks offer a hedge against inflation is theoretically founded on the Fisher identity. Contrary to this fundamental view, recent empirical tests reject both the Fisher hypothesis and the Fama proxy hypothesis even when accommodating expected economic growth in the estimates. This article proposes to consider different regimes underlying stock market returns in the analysis of the relationship between inflation expectations and nominal stock returns. Using monthly data for the euro area and for Luxembourg over the past two decades, our results show that the Fisher hypothesis cannot be rejected when stock market regimes are accommodated in the estimates of the Geske & Roll reverse causality relation. In this context, shares allow for hedging against inflation and their prices can be used by central banks as a leading indicator for inflation.