IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/caa/jnlpps/v45y2009ispecialissueid2831-pps.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Warren Shaw

    (School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK)

Abstract

Climate change will change patterns of disease through changes in host distribution and phenology, changes in plant-associated microflora and direct biological effects on rapidly evolving pathogens. Short-term forecast models coupled with weather generated from climate simulations may be a basis for projection; however, they will often fail to capture long-term trends effectively. Verification of predictions is a major difficulty; the most convincing method would be to "back-forecast" observed historical changes. Unfortunately, we lack of empirical data over long time-spans; most of what is known concerns invasions, in which climate is not the main driving factor. In one case where long-term prevalence can be deduced, climate had little to do with change. Resilience to surprises should be the most important policy aim.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Warren Shaw, 2009. "Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45(SpecialIs), pages 3-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlpps:v:45:y:2009:i:specialissue:id:2831-pps
    DOI: 10.17221/2831-PPS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pps.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/2831-PPS.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://pps.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/2831-PPS.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17221/2831-PPS?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:caa:jnlpps:v:45:y:2009:i:specialissue:id:2831-pps. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cazv.cz/en/home/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.