Climate change and topographic variations affect infestation by Xyleutes ceramica (Walker, 1865) (Lepidoptera: Cossidae) in teak plantations in Thailand

The teak bee-hole borer [Xyleutes ceramica (Walker, 1865)] is considered one of the most serious pests of teak (Tectona grandis) in Thailand. The present study investigates climatic and topographic variables affecting the infestation of teak trees by X. ceramica in 10 plantations and predicts the risk of infestation by the species under current and future climatic conditions in Thailand. At each plantation, 48 plots evenly distributed among twelve teak stands were sampled. The infested teak trees in the plots were assessed, and the coordinates of the tree positions were recorded. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to assess the effects of environmental factors and predict the occurrence probability of the species using current and projected (2050) climate data based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from multiple global climate models. According to our results, high accuracy values [AUC (area under the curve) = 0.852, TSS (true skill statistics) = 0.775] of the model prediction were obtained, and the infestation was found to be driven much more by climate than by topographic characteristics. Above all, X. ceramica was found to prefer moderate temperatures in a highly distinct seasonal climate. Additionally, relatively low amounts of premonsoon rainfall are also found to be favoured by the species. The predicted risk map revealed that the northern region is the core area of X. ceramica infestation in Thailand under current and future climatic conditions, but the severity of infestation is predicted to gradually decrease under the predicted future climatic conditions. Recommendations for management to minimise tree damage caused by X. ceramica are also presented in this study.