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Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Ángel M. Felicísimo

    (Departamento de Expresión Gráfica. Centro Universitario de Mérida, Universidad de Extremadura, Mérida, Spain)

  • Ignacio Armendáriz

    (Instituto Agropecuario Superior Andino (IASA), Sangolquí, Ecuador)

  • Virginia Alberdi

    (Departamento de Expresión Gráfica, Centro Universitario de Mérida, Universidad de Extremadura, Mérida, Spain)

Abstract

Xylotrechus arvicola is an emerging grape pest that generates serious sanitary problems in vineyards and is currently expanding its range throughout Spain. The increasing prevalence of this pest in Spanish vineyards has been detected since 1990. In this study, the relationship between the climate and the actual distribution of the beetle was analysed, as well as how this distribution might change in the future according to several climate change models. The methodology was based on predictive models (SDM; species distribution modelling) using climate variables as explanatory factors, although the relationships were not necessarily causal. Maxent was used as the SDM method. The current climatic niche was calculated, and the actual potential distribution area was estimated. The relationships between the climate variables and the species probability of the presence were projected to various future climate change scenarios. The main conclusions reached were that climate change will favour the expansion of X. arvicola and that the potential infestation zones will be extended significantly. Although the results, because they were based on hypothetical climate frameworks that are under constant revision, were not conclusive, they should be taken into consideration when defining future strategies in the wine industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Ángel M. Felicísimo & Ignacio Armendáriz & Virginia Alberdi, 2021. "Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain," Horticultural Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 48(1), pages 38-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlhor:v:48:y:2021:i:1:id:85-2019-hortsci
    DOI: 10.17221/85/2019-HORTSCI
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. Gregorová & K. Černý & V. Holub & V. Strnadová, 2010. "Effects of climatic factors and air pollution on damage of London plane (Platanus hispanica Mill.)," Horticultural Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 37(3), pages 109-117.
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