The impact and mechanisms of animal epidemics on pork prices and the mechanisms involved: Evidence from a multi-period DID model

This study employs the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak as a quasi-natural experiment to assess its impact on pork prices and the underlying mechanisms. Utilising panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from January 2017 to December 2022, we apply a difference-in-differences (DID) approach combined with a moderating effect model. Furthermore, through DID quantile regression models, we delve into the impact of the epidemic on price volatility under varying initial pork price growth rates and regional institutional conditions. The findings reveal that the outbreak triggered a significant increase in the pork price, which averaged approximately 6%. During this process, the hog inventory exhibited a positive moderating effect on price increases, with steeper price hikes occurring during inventory declines. The outbreak further widened regional price disparities, with more pronounced increases occurring in areas experiencing earlier and steeper initial price rises, alongside more developed agricultural economies. Consequently, governments should adopt targeted regulatory strategies tailored to the distinct characteristics of pork price fluctuations. Simultaneously, enhancing coordination across all links in the industrial chain and optimising public information platforms can mitigate the impact of sudden animal disease outbreaks on the pork market.