The Production and Prediction of Traffic Accidents
Traffic accidents are a painful and costly affliction all over the world. The discussion and debate over the most effective measures to adopt to enhance road safety is often based on folk theories and is not free of private interests and pressures. Road traffic is a complicated system of interactions providing transportation services. Unfortunately, in conjunction with these services, traffic accidents, an awful public bad, are produced. The purpose of this paper is to study the production relationship, for intercity transportation, between the physical factors, i. e., highways and vehicles, and traffic accidents. The upshot is prediction ability of accidents in any given road segment, existing or planned. The regretful aspect of roads runs counter to conventional wisdom which, failing to appreciate the quantitative relationship between roads and accidents, often advocates building more and wider roads as the remedy. The empirically substantiated public bad property of roads, by way of production functions for traffic accidents, is useful for public policy, concerning the investment in highways versus other forms of transportation, such as rail. They also promote better understanding of traffic accidents and their data and the methodology allows testing hypotheses relating to safety policy. This study sheds light on the enigma of the long-term decline in the probability of death on the road, as observed in many countries, by attributing it to the rising traffic density. The estimation also sheds light on the accident-externality imposed by road users on others. The results suggest that for inter-city roads the risk of fatal and severe accidents is over-internalized by road users as the marginal effect of traffic flow is smaller than the average.
Volume (Year): 1 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.predictionmarketjournal.com/index_files/Page418.htm Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:1:y:2007:i:2:p:157-168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.