IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/buc/jgbeco/v2y2008i1p1-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inferring Risk Preferences Using Synthetic Win Bets in Horse Betting "Exotic" Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Philip O'Connor

Abstract

Exotic bets: exactas, trifectas and superfectas are complicated gambles that depend on the ordering of horse in a race that can be studied by converting them into "synthetic" or "virtual" win bets. Using two ways of constructing synthetic win bets, it is shown that the favorite-longshot bias is a poor description of the returns of the trifecta and superfecta synthetic win bet. Rather, consistent with financial markets, the standard deviation of the payout of the synthetic win bet better describes the different returns of synthetic win bets. It is found that the synthetic win market dislikes standard deviation and kurtosis (and other higher-order even moments) and likes skewness (and other higher order odd moments), implying participants conform to standard utility theory in their choice between win and synthetic win bets and are not risk-loving. A co-efficient of relative risk aversion of about 3 is estimated. Including higher-order moments strongly affects the magnitude of utility function estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip O'Connor, 2008. "Inferring Risk Preferences Using Synthetic Win Bets in Horse Betting "Exotic" Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:1-29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jgbe/article/view/522
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:1-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross). General contact details of provider: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.