Analysis Of The Regional Economic Impact Of Hybrid Conflicts On Trade Relations

In the last period, the international economy is marked by a diversity of fundamental transformations that reshape the architecture of the interdependencies on the basis of which it operates. The World Trade Organization has seen preliminary signs of fragmentation in trade flows, with exports and imports reorienting along geopolitical lines. Trade can contribute to the propagation of shocks because it exposes economies to external risks, but it can also be a source of shocks. The positive effect of trade on resilience has been demonstrated by recent crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, trade has played an important role in the adjustment of net food importing countries. As with economic security, trade can theoretically increase or decrease the likelihood of conflict. In theory, the relationship between trade and economic security is not very clear. The multilateral trading system incorporated by the World Trade Organization is fundamental to achieving the resilience benefits of international trade by helping economies obtain inputs from around the world on transparent and comparable terms. The war in Ukraine highlights that this allows rapid adjustment of trade flows when unforeseen shocks occur.