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An Integer-Valued Time Series Model for Hotels that Accounts for Constrained Capacity

Author

Listed:
  • Brannas Kurt

    (Umea University)

  • Nordstrom Jonas

    (Umea University)

Abstract

Many service industry firms strive hard to fill free capacity in order to cover their costs for a fixed capital stock. This paper presents a time series model where the capacity constraint is an integral part. The integer-valued autoregressive model builds on a simple idea of how daily time series arise for hotels and other similar establishments. Measures that follow naturally from the time series model are the occupancy probability and the duration of stay for the visitor. Empirically, we study the effects of price changes and a large festival, on these measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Brannas Kurt & Nordstrom Jonas, 2004. "An Integer-Valued Time Series Model for Hotels that Accounts for Constrained Capacity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:8:y:2004:i:4:n:6
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1189
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Brännäs & Jonas Nordström, 2006. "Tourist Accommodation Effects of Festivals," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 291-302, June.
    2. Pasquale Cirillo & Jürg Hüsler & Pietro Muliere, 2013. "Alarm Systems and Catastrophes from a Diverse Point of View," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 821-839, December.
    3. Krishnan, Trichy V. & Feng, Shanfei & Beebe, Tony, 2011. "Modeling the demand and supply in a new B2B-upstream market using a knowledge updating process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1160-1177, October.

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