Widespread Traffic Congestion Prediction for Urban Road Network Based on Synergetic Theory

The traffic congestion often occurs in urban road network. When one of the sections becomes congested, it will lead to a series of congestions in other sections. The traffic congestion spreads rapidly until part of road network becomes congestion ultimately. In this case, the paper investigates the mechanism of the traffic congestion in urban road network and points out that subsystems of the traffic congestion always perform completive and cooperative functions in the process of traffic congestion. The process behaves in a manner of self-organized criticality, which can be forecasted. The paper also establishes synergetic predictive models based on self-organized criticality of the synergetic theory. Finally, the paper takes Beijing road network as an example to forecast the widespread traffic congestion. The result shows that the established models are accuracy, and the traffic congestion is featured of self-organized criticality.