Updating the National Planning Scenarios: Using Wicked Problems and Capability-Based Planning Concepts for Homeland Security

This research studies the National Planning Scenarios (NPS) as a set of tools to support federal, state, and local homeland security preparedness. The study examines how the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) can ensure that the NPS remain a relevant and flexible preparedness tool for federal, state, and local partners. The research suggests that the problem of developing a robust set of credible scenarios for homeland security planning may be an example of a planning dilemma known as a wicked problem. Such problems defy conventional, linear, analytic solutions. Horst Rittel and Melvin M. Webber described solving wicked problems in the 1970s as “…not objective and cannot be derived from following a formula … judgments are likely to vary widely and depend on the stakeholder’s independent values and goals.” The 15 NPS were created in 2003, in the wake of the attacks of September 11, 2001. The newly established DHS used the capabilities-based planning (CBP) concept on the NPS to provide an array of response challenges for federal, state, and local governments at all levels. CBP—effectively used by the Department of Defense (DoD) —is defined as planning, under uncertainty, that aims to provide capabilities suitable for a wide range of future challenges and circumstances while working within an economic framework. This research uses the wicked problem and CBP concepts to develop an updated set of scenarios that are a relevant and flexible tool for preparing for current and future situations. Combining lessons learned from those concepts, the authors recommend an iterative, flexible process to update the NPS and make them adaptable to the differing needs of federal, state, and local governments.