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Growth-Led Exports: Implications for the Cross-Country Effects of Shocks to Potential Output

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  • Gagnon Joseph E

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

Fast-growing countries tend to experience rapid export growth with little secular change in their terms of trade. This contradicts most international macroeconomic models, which predict that productivity and labor-supply shocks can affect exports only through changes in the terms of trade. This paper generalizes the monopolistic competition trade model of Helpman and Krugman (1985), providing a basis for growth-led exports without declining terms of trade. The key mechanism behind this result is that fast-growing countries are able to develop new varieties of products that can be exported without pushing down the prices of existing products. There is strong support for the new model in the long-run export growth of many countries in the post-war era. These results have major implications for the analysis of supply shocks in international macroeconomic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Gagnon Joseph E, 2008. "Growth-Led Exports: Implications for the Cross-Country Effects of Shocks to Potential Output," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:2
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1690.1579
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2011. "Current Account Imbalances Coming Back," Working Paper Series WP11-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Free Huizinga & S. Smulders, 2009. "Varieties and the terms of trade," CPB Discussion Paper 127, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. HAZMAN, Samsudin & OMAR, Khatijah & ABD HALIMB, Abi sofian & SYAZWAN SHAMSUDIN, Muhammad Saiful, 2021. "Export Led Growth Via Intra-Regional Trading An Econometric Analysis Of Asean, Eu, Nafta, Mercosur And Comesa," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(2), pages 5-28.

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