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To Pool or to Aggregate? Tests with a Dynamic Panel Macroeconometric Model of Australian State Labor Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chaudhuri Kausik

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Developmental Research)

  • Sheen Jeffrey R

    (University of Sydney)

Abstract

We construct a dynamic error correction model of the Australian labor market using a macroeconomic panel across seven states from 1972:3 to 1999:1. Medium-run equilibrium estimates support a real wage-productivity gap and an unemployment gap. The dynamic short-run estimates support expectations-augmented Phillips curves for wages and prices, and demand-led employment growth. We compare three procedures - pooled, aggregate and mean group estimates. Considerable heterogeneity existed across states in the pooled procedure, and state-level variables had a significant impact in the aggregate procedure. Out-of-sample aggregate forecasting for the pooled, aggregate and mean group procedures suggests that the pooled one performs best.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaudhuri Kausik & Sheen Jeffrey R, 2007. "To Pool or to Aggregate? Tests with a Dynamic Panel Macroeconometric Model of Australian State Labor Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-37, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:7:y:2007:i:1:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1690.1365
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    Cited by:

    1. Badri Narayanan G., 2005. "Effects of Trade liberalisation, Environmental and Labour Regulations on Employment in India's Organised Textile Sector," Labor Economics Working Papers 22363, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Angelos T. Vouldis & Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2018. "Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: the information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1187-1214, May.

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