Der 12 Euro-Mindestlohnschock, flüchtige Kipppunkte und der Denkstilzwang

Before the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in Germany in 2015, there was broad consensus within labor economics that this ‘social experiment’ would inevitably lead to substantial job losses. However, the accompanying research was unable to confirm the predicted decline in employment and had to concede – as in other countries with minimum wage regulations – the ‘elusiveness of employment effects’. This article traces the debate surrounding the introduction of the minimum wage and analyzes how the academic community responded to the divergence between actual employment developments and model-based forecasts – a phenomenon that, from the perspective of the philosophy of science, can be understood as an ‘anomaly’ or even a ‘crisis’. The analysis draws on Fleck’s theory of thought styles and distinguishes between two phases: the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015 and its sharp increase in 2022. This distinction makes it possible to examine both learning processes within economic research and the resilience of a dominant paradigm.