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Forecasting Thai Mortality by Using the Lee-Carter Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yasungnoen Natthasurang
  • Sattayatham Pairote

    (Institute of Science – School of Mathematics, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhorn Ratchasima, Muang Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand)

Abstract

In this paper, we model the mortality rate in Thailand by using the Lee-Carter model. Three classical methods, i.e. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Weighted Least Square (WLS), and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are used to estimate the parameters of the Lee-Carter model. With these methods, we investigate the goodness of fit for the mortality rate spanning the period 2003 to 2012. The fitted models are compared. The autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) is used to forecast the general index and mortality rate the time period from 2013 to 2022. As a result, we also forecast Thai life expectancy at birth.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasungnoen Natthasurang & Sattayatham Pairote, 2016. "Forecasting Thai Mortality by Using the Lee-Carter Model," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 91-105, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:apjrin:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:91-105:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/apjri-2014-0042
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