IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bot/rivsta/v73y2013i1p103-122.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can a regional climate model reproduce observed extreme temperatures?

Author

Listed:
  • Peter F. Craigmile

    (University of Glasgow - UK)

  • Peter eter Guttorp

    (University of Washington, Seattle - USA)

Abstract

Using output from a regional Swedish climate model and observations from the Swedish synoptic observational network, we compare seasonal minimum temperatures from model output and observations using marginal extreme value modeling techniques. We make seasonal comparisons using generalized extreme value models and empirically estimate the shift in the distribution as a function of the regional climate model values, using the Doksum shift function. Spatial and temporal comparisons over south central Sweden are made by building hierarchical Bayesian generalized extreme value models for the observed minima and regional climate model output. Generally speaking the regional model is surprisingly well calibrated for minimum temperatures. We do detect a problem in the regional model to produce minimum temperatures close to 0?C. The seasonal spatial effects are quite similar between data and regional model. The observations indicate relatively strong warming, especially in the northern region. This signal is present in the regional model, but is not as strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter F. Craigmile & Peter eter Guttorp, 2013. "Can a regional climate model reproduce observed extreme temperatures?," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 73(1), pages 103-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:bot:rivsta:v:73:y:2013:i:1:p:103-122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bot:rivsta:v:73:y:2013:i:1:p:103-122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giovanna Galatà (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsbolit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.