The role of travel-related services in the evolution of the Greek HICP

This paper investigates the role of travel-related services – specifically package holidays, restaurants and hotels, and passenger transport by air – in the evolution of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Greece. With tourism representing a substantial sector of the Greek economy, understanding how the prices of these services interact with broader inflationary dynamics is of increasing importance, particularly in the context of the euro area’s harmonised statistical framework. The study begins with an overview of the HICP and the national Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting methodological differences and similarities in how travel-related services are treated within each. It then examines the individual components of travel-related services to assess their contribution to the overall HICP, using official monthly data and decomposition techniques. Subsequently, the paper tracks the historical evolution of these services prices, exploring seasonal patterns, structural shifts and the impact of major economic events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery. To place the Greek experience in a broader context, the analysis incorporates a cross-country comparison, examining how travel related services inflation has varied across euro area countries and identifying potential sources of heterogeneity. The findings aim to inform both statistical and policy discussions, shedding light on the weight and behaviour of a vital sector within inflation measurement and offering insight into price dynamics that are often volatile yet economically significant. The paper concludes by summarising key findings and proposing ideas for future research.