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Dinámica e impacto del Covid-19 en la economía boliviana

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Mauricio Huanto Quispe

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

El presente documento analiza la dinámica de transición de la pandemia Covid-19 y sus posibles efectos en la economía boliviana. Se utiliza una modelación de dos pasos: primero, se modela de tal manera que sea eficiente la dinámica de la pandemia, expandiendo el modelo clásico SIR para simular la trayectoria de la pandemia; se utilizan métodos numéricos y otra novedosa metodología para recuperar los parámetros de dichos modelos. Segundo, para estudiar los posibles efectos de la pandemia en la economía boliviana, se vincula la modelación del paso anterior con un modelo de equilibrio general. Se encuentra que los efectos de la pandemia generan una recesión grande y persistente en la economía boliviana. Asimismo, las políticas de contención para controlar la pandemia logran ayudar a salvar vidas pero pueden exacerbar aún más la recesión en la economía.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Mauricio Huanto Quispe, 2020. "Dinámica e impacto del Covid-19 en la economía boliviana," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 33(1), pages 39-68, July - De.
    • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:33:y:2020:i:1:p:39-68
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemia; Covid-19; modelos epidemiológicos; economía; recesión;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General

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