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Identificación de booms crediticios en América Latina

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar A. Díaz Quevedo

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

En los últimos años el crédito al sector privado creció notablemente en América Latina. Un aspecto central es determinar si esta dinámica se constituye en un proceso de convergencia hacia niveles de equilibrio o representa un factor de riesgo para la estabilidad financiera y monetaria. Utilizando una muestra de 18 países latinoamericanos a partir de técnicas estadísticas y econométricas se intenta dar una respuesta a este cuestionamiento. Las técnicas estadísticas permiten determinar la desviación del crédito con relación a su tendencia de largo plazo, mientras que con el enfoque econométrico se analiza el comportamiento del crédito con relación a sus fundamentos. De acuerdo al primer enfoque los países de la región no estarían experimentando períodos de booms crediticios, mientras que las conclusiones del modelo econométrico indicarían que la mayor parte de los países de América Latina presentan niveles de profundización menores a sus niveles de equilibrio al considerar sus fundamentos.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar A. Díaz Quevedo, 2013. "Identificación de booms crediticios en América Latina," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 19(1), pages 9-56, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:9-56
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Boom crediticio; profundización financiera;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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