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Estimación del circulante en moneda extranjera en Bolivia

  • Raúl Mendoza Patiño

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Marco Antonio Laguna Vargas

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Hugo Rodríguez Gonzales

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Registered author(s):

    Debido a que Bolivia es una economía bimonetaria, es muy importante contar con una estimación del circulante en dólares. El documento expone la evolución del dinero en un contexto de dolarización financiera y presenta estimaciones del circulante en moneda extranjera con base a modelos estadísticos y un modelo contable. La consistencia económica de los resultados encontrados se analiza incorporando el circulante en dólares en una medida de circulante total. Los resultados indican que la cantidad de dinero en circulación en moneda extranjera se redujo significativamente en los últimos años, tendencia que se habría revertido levemente a partir del último trimestre de 2008. La demanda de efectivo en moneda extranjera, no sólo se realiza como medio de cambio, sino también como reserva de valor. El principal factor que explica el comportamiento del circulante en moneda extranjera está relacionado con las expectativas sobre la evolución del tipo de cambio, además, cambios bruscos en la demanda por circulante en moneda extranjera estuvieron asociados a períodos de incertidumbre.

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    Article provided by Banco Central de Bolivia in its journal Revista de Análisis.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (June)
    Pages: 35-80

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    Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:12:y:2010:i:1:p:35-80
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