Trade Margins and Firm‐Level Responses to Global Shocks: A Comparative Analysis of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and COVID‐19 Pandemic in Kenya

This study examines how the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID‐19 pandemic differentially impacted Kenya's export and import performance at the firm level. Utilising monthly firm‐level customs data from 2006 to 2022, we decompose trade margins and identify determinants of the mid‐point export and import growth during the GFC and the COVID‐19 pandemic. Findings reveal distinct trade patterns between the crises, with the intensive margin primarily affecting exports during the two crises, while the extensive margin was more critical in the mid‐point growth of imports. Regression results show that both exports and imports declined during both crises. However, exports contracted more significantly during the GFC than during the pandemic, whereas imports declined more sharply during the pandemic than during the GFC. Firm size, product characteristics, and partner‐country attributes were significant determinants of trade performance during both crises. These findings further highlight the crucial role of global value chains and government policies (including both restrictions and economic support) in shaping firm‐level trade performance during crises. The study underscores the importance of addressing the sensitivity of imports to shocks and, in turn, mitigating demand‐side frictions during economic crises.