Cuba, the centrally planned cigar, and its rivals

Cuba has a long‐standing reputation for producing premium cigars. Despite the inefficiencies of central planning, Cuba continues to command a dominant global market share in this product outside the United States, whose trade embargo forbids Cuban imports. Cuba's main rivals in premium cigars include the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Honduras, which dominate the US market but have a smaller presence elsewhere. All premium cigar exporters face important global demographic and policy changes that will alter the competitive landscape. Public anti‐smoking measures have diminished cigar demand in Europe and other industrialised areas, reinforcing a market growth shift towards emerging markets, especially China. Cuba's strengths in branding, reputation and third‐world ties give it an advantage in developing the high end of these new markets. However, the rigidities of Cuba's economic system make it difficult to increase or adjust premium cigar output and exports in response to new market opportunities. Cost‐efficient competition from its Caribbean rivals allows them to respond to consumer preferences for new cigar blends and lower‐priced brands. The paper concludes by assessing the need for economic reforms and foreign investment in Cuban cigar production that will be necessary for it to maintain or improve its export performance.