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Het voorspellen van levertijden uit gegevens over de voort‐gang van een project

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  • H. L. Muller

Abstract

Estimation of dates of delivery by extrapolation of progress‐data for a project. The problem can be put in mathematical form with the aid of some assumptions with regard to the occurrence of interruptions. The progress of the project is supposed to be interrupted by time‐intervals during which progress is fully stopped. These intervals start at irregularly distributed moments and have a variable size. The points on the time axis corresponding with the moments of stagnation will show a constant average density, if a constant average production capacity or development capacity is available. This means that the results are valid only if no alterations are made which influence the general progress of the project involved. The application of probability theory to problems connected with promises of delivery may, in general, look unacceptable. Many projects, however, have an experimental character and unforeseen technical and organisational troubles are unavoidable. In such cases the theory makes it possible to obtain a maximum amount of information contained in the progress‐data and may help management to make the best decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • H. L. Muller, 1955. "Het voorspellen van levertijden uit gegevens over de voort‐gang van een project," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 9(3), pages 89-99, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:9:y:1955:i:3:p:89-99
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.1955.tb00288.x
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