Investeren en onzekerheid

Summary Investment and uncertainty After a few introductory remarks about the necessity of uniform definitions about plan horizon, returns, expenses, interest factor ett. for all investment alternatives and the necessity of an also uniform way of prediction, several models on investment analysis which are known from literature are briefly discussed. For simplicity there is only one decision variable (i.e. capacity); the variables influencing it are called exogeneous variables. These exogeneous variables may be deterministic and then one has to maximize the sum of the discounted cash flows from each project where different levels of investment into a project are supposed to exclude each other. The maximization may be subject to restrictions or not. If the exogeneous variables are stochastic one has to maximize the expected utility, mostly defined by the expected value and the variance of the discounted cash flows. The way to carry this out is simulation. Also portfolio analysis may be used, but there are some objections against this method, which are discussed.