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Statistical priesthood *) (Savage on personal probabilities [1])

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  • D. van Dantzig

Abstract

In verband met de huidige ontwikkeling van de ekonomische beslissingstheorie heeft de subjectivistische opvatting van net waarschijnlijkheidsbegrip tegenwoordig weer meer aanhangers dan enige tijd geleden. Eén daarvan is Leonard J. Savage, die deze opvatting in zijn boek “The foundations of statistics” [1] nadrukkelijk verdedigt. Daarom wordt in dit artikel het boek van Savage en de subjectivistische opvatting in het algemeen aan een kritisch onderzoek onderworpen. Ter vergelijking worden de opvattingen van Jacob Bernoulli, en ook die van de schrijver van dit artikel, kort samengevat. Het boek bevat vele en ernstige gebreken. Noch zijn beschouwingen, noch zijn voorbeelden wettigen het vermoeden dat schrijver veel statistische ervaring bezit. Voorts wordt uitvoerig aangetoond, dat het “beginsel van de kleinste spijt” op niet ter zake doende gronden kan leiden tot strategieën die verre van optimaal zijn en altijd bijna het slechtst mogelijke resultaat hebben. Dit van Savage afkomstige beginsel mag daarmede wel als definitief weerlegd worden beschouwd.

Suggested Citation

  • D. van Dantzig, 1957. "Statistical priesthood *) (Savage on personal probabilities [1])," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:11:y:1957:i:1:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.1957.tb00014.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Medema, Steven G, 2024. "Identifying a "Chicago School" of Economics: On the Origins, Diffusion, and Evolving Meanings of a Famous Brand Name," SocArXiv cbq8a, Center for Open Science.
    2. Koerts, J. & de Leede, E., 1972. "Statistical Inference And Subjective Probabilities," Econometric Institute Archives 272058, Erasmus University Rotterdam.

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